A concerning trend is emerging on Australian roads, mirroring a dangerous pattern seen in the United States. According to Associate Professor Milad Haghani, a road safety expert from the University of Melbourne, Australia's recent rise in road deaths is following a similar trajectory to the USA's long-standing issue with pedestrian fatalities.
The annual road toll in Australia has been steadily declining since the late 1970s, but the latest data reveals a concerning shift. For the past five years, road deaths have been on the rise, marking the first time such a sustained increase has occurred since the post-World War II era. This alarming trend is particularly concerning as it coincides with a rise in pedestrian deaths, which have been steadily increasing in the US for over a decade.
"What we're witnessing in the US is a sharp increase in pedestrian crashes since 2010, and we're seeing the same pattern emerging in Australia," warns Dr. Haghani. "I've been predicting that Australia would follow a similar pedestrian death trend as the US."
The expert highlights a critical factor: the preference for larger vehicles among US motorists. This shift towards larger cars has contributed to a higher rate of pedestrian fatalities in the US, and Dr. Haghani suspects the same is happening in Australia. "The data shows that the tail of pedestrian deaths in the US back in 2010 is now being replicated in 2025 due to the earlier trend of increasing car sizes in the US."
Countering popular belief, Dr. Haghani refutes the notion that illegal crossing, headphone use, or mobile phone distractions are the primary causes of rising pedestrian deaths. "Phones have been around for decades, but the recent change in pedestrian fatalities is more recent."
The data tells a different story. While pedestrian fatalities among 21-29-year-olds have decreased, older age groups have experienced a surge in road deaths. This discrepancy suggests that factors other than phone use may be at play. "If phone use was the dominant factor, we would see a similar increase in deaths among young people, who are typically the most frequent phone users," Dr. Haghani explains.
The Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE) data supports this. Pedestrian fatalities among 21-30-year-olds have been decreasing annually since 2023, while other age groups have seen a rise. This data also accounts for the unprecedented travel restrictions during the COVID-19 lockdowns, which may have influenced road safety.
As Australia grapples with this emerging crisis, the question remains: will the rise in road fatalities persist, or is it a temporary anomaly? The BITRE regularly publishes national road fatality data, offering valuable insights into this critical issue. With further research and awareness, we can work towards safer roads and potentially reverse this concerning trend.
